Predictions show Labour victory in Broxtowe and Ashfield

Ashfield and Broxtowe (Red) are both predicted to vote Labour on May 7.
Ashfield and Broxtowe (Red) are both predicted to vote Labour on May 7.

Only seven days to go and as the election draws near poll data is accumulating to reveal the predicted results of marginal constituencies.

Both Broxtowe and Ashfield consistuencies may end up with Labour MPs after May 7, according to vote researchers ElectionForecast.co.uk.

Predictions for Ashfield are that Labour’s Gloria De Piero will hold a majority of 46 while Conservative Helen Harrison takes only 20 per cent.

In Broxtowe, the trio of university researchers said they would see Labour winning, estimating a close but comfortable 40 per cent of votes against 37 per cent to the Conservatives.

This is compared to Anna Soubry’s majority of 0.7 per cent in 2010.

LBC broadcaster Ian Dale agreed with the prediction in his national round-up of constituencies this week.

Dale said: “Another one of those seats where Labour has to win if Ed Miliband has and hope of gaining any sort of power. Anna Soubry has been a star of the 2010-15 parliament and it will be sad to see her lose.”

In Ashfield, again, he predicted Labour.

He added: “Quite how the LibDems nearly won this seat in 2010 I do not know. They went from 14% of the vote to 33%. They are fielding the same candidate this time. However, even if they throw the kitchen sink at Gloria de Piero I don’t think it will be enough. I expect her majority to increase by several thousand.”

However Nationally, Lord Ashcroft’s polls of the election battleground shows that in the marginals Labour may take the lead, but they lose too many seats to the SNP to make a majority in parliament.

Of the 179 marginal seats polled, he claimed that Labour would come out on top by winning 72 of the battleground constituencies.

The polls of 1,000 people show the Conservatives drop down from 90 marginals to 50, and UKIP are predicted to win three of them.

But the SNP will overrun Labour in Scotlant, winning 25 of the 26 seats, according to the research by the ex-Tory peer.

ElectionForcast, run by Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia, collates YouGov data with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census.